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Every few years the housing market rewrites the rules, and buyers who learned the last set of rules show up unprepared for the new ones. Right now, the rules have changed more than they have at any point in a generation. The buyers who understand that are finding deals. The ones who do not are making expensive mistakes.
The arithmetic here is brutal and worth understanding clearly. A buyer who financed a $400,000 home at three percent in 2021 pays roughly $1,686 per month on principal and interest. That same loan at a seven percent rate costs $2,661. The difference between those two payments explains why so many potential sellers are sitting tight. Volume collapsed. Prices mostly did not.
Affordability, by the standard measure of what share of median household income goes toward the monthly payment on a median-priced home, is near its worst level since the early 1980s. That is a real problem, and it is not going away quickly. But affordability being stretched does not mean prices are about to fall sharply. What it means, practically, is that the buyer who can close confidently has more leverage than the headline numbers suggest.
Shop more than one institution, because the spread in rates and costs is real. A quarter-point difference in your interest rate adds up to around twenty thousand dollars over a thirty-year loan on a four hundred thousand dollar mortgage. Lender fees vary too. Do not compare rate quotes without also comparing origination fees, points, and closing costs.
The inspection is where the marketing copy meets reality. Be there with the inspector and ask questions throughout. A good home inspector will walk you through what they are finding as they go, and those few hours will shape your understanding of the home for as long as you own it.
Budget enough to cover origination fees, title, escrow, prepaid taxes, and insurance without being caught short at the table. First-time buyers often do not see the full closing cost picture until the Closing Disclosure arrives three days before settlement. Ask your lender for a Loan Estimate with a realistic purchase price so the numbers reflect what you are actually going to face.
Real estate is illiquid. Buying and selling inside two years is almost always a money-losing proposition once you account for the full cost of both transactions. None of that means do not buy. It means be honest about your time horizon before you commit.
Buyers who take the time to research properly tend to find that there are still good properties available at realistic prices. Spending twenty minutes with current homes for sale and market analytics is a better use of your time than waiting for conditions that may never arrive.
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